A recent article by Mr. Rigoberto Tiglao was published in The
Manila Times last December 15, 2021, which will really get your attention.
Titled “Solid North, Solid South: Stronger the 2016” he
eloquently lays down the subtle variables which will lead to a majority if not
a landslide win for the UniTeam of Bongbong Marcos Jr., and Inday Sara
Duterte-Carpio.
For purposes of full disclosure and for public knowledge we have
quoted in full Mr. Tiglao’s written article below:
(photo credit to owner)
Solid North, Solid South: Stronger the 2016
DATA from the low key but highly reliable pollster Laylo
Associates indicate that the Marcoses' so-called Solid North (the
Ilokano-speaking provinces) and the relatively new "Solid South" (the
Dutertes' Northern Mindanao and Davao provinces) are even more solid in
delivering votes than in 2016.
According to the Laylo poll (undertaken end-November and with
3,000 respondents), 92 to 97 percent of the Ilocos, Cordillera and Cagayan
Valley will be voting for Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. This
is markedly bigger than the 65 percent to 75 percent of votes in these
provinces that Marcos got in the 2016 vice presidential elections
These North and South regions will most likely deliver an
avalanche of votes for both Marcos and his running mate, Sara Duterte-Carpio,
to make the opposition candidate Leni Robredo the worst-performing
candidate in our Republic's history. At least according to the Laylo November
poll, she would be getting only 12 percent of votes; even worse than Jose
de Venecia's 16 percent in 1998, the record holder as the biggest loser so far.
It would be the last nail on the coffin of this Yellow Plague
that has afflicted us since 1986.
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| (photo credit to owner) |
It could be even worse than 12 percent. With all polls
confirming Bongbong to have a wide lead over Robredo, campaign financiers would
be crazy to throw money at a loser. The funds trickling into Robredo's coffers
would even be reduced as her fundraisers skim off the contributions, as they
see their candidate losing anyway, and they wouldn't care if she finds out.
Maybe Robredo herself would likely, realistically, stash away some of the
contributions to ensure herself a comfortable retirement. Not too many potential
contributors, I bet, will be returning Robredo's calls.
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| (photo credit to owner) |
Already, Robredo's noisiest cheerleader Albert del
Rosario, sources said, has vanished after he was
given the results of the Social Weather Stations October poll which showed
Marcos getting 47 percent of votes as against Robredo's 18 percent. That nutty
group who first endorsed Robredo as its candidate, 1Sambayan, can't even meet
as no one is willing to pick up the bill for the lunch. Sources claimed that
Robredo frowned her frown when she was told that Maria Ressa declined her plea to contribute to her campaign
funds from her P25-million Nobel cash prize.
(photo credit to owner)
What is surprising about Laylo's poll is that even the National
Capital Region — traditionally very much pro-opposition and where the
Pink-dominated media has its dominion — will go for Marcos, with 61 percent of
ivoters backing him. Only 12 percent in that region chose Robredo. She can
count only on one single region — her home region Bicol, with 70 percent going
for her. Even Western Visayas, the Liberal
Party's traditional turf, gives Marcos 36 percent of its vote, bigger than
Robredo's 27 percent.
(photo credit to owner)
If Marcos' trajectory continues, he will be the
second president elected by a majority of votes in our post-EDSA history. I
would think that would be good to unite this country that the Yellows have
divided.
Words of wisdom from Facebook
Despite its many serious flaws — its
confirmation-bias algorithm among others — I'm still a believer in it since I
encounter once in a while brilliant writing there from non-journalists, whose
work is even better than by those who have been writing columns for years.
Here's one from Krizette Laureta Chu, who describes herself as the "CEO at
Second Chances PH."
Reasons the 2022 elections is the most important one for the
opposition and why they're going to give it their all (and why many — not all —
Kakampinks can't help but be toxic):
Reasons the 2022 elections is the most important one for the
opposition and why they're going to give it their all (and why many — not all —
Kakampinks can't help but be toxic):
1. A Bongbong Marcos (BBM) win — not just a win but a sweep —
will cement that Leni's VP win was a fraud. Not only will she lose 2022, she
will lose 2016, despite what the courts have said. History will be rewritten.
This is very painful for the LP and their followers.
2. Opposition will be all but obliterated. In 2016, they lost
the presidency but squeezed in the vice presidency, still ok because of the
many party mates in Congress and Senate — after all they were admin candidates.
2019 they spectacularly lost all Senate seats and many of their party mates
jumped ship to PDP-Laban. In 2019, LP became a shell of what it once was. In
2022 key LP players moved to Isko after they lost faith in Leni's chairmanship
and leadership. If they lose this election, on Leni's watch, the once powerful
LP crumbles to fine dust. The party that once was the most powerful, most holy,
most righteous and most decent, will cease to exist.
Marcos return
3. Yes they want to block a Marcos return to the Palace — but
many in the younger generation — even among the pro LP — do not appreciate the significance of the Marcoses
stepping foot in Malacañang after being driven away in 1986. It is the older
generation who never expected to live to see Imelda Marcos back in Malacañang who will be super heartbroken
when the Marcoses return to the seat of power. Many of today's oligarchs are a
product and a beneficiary of the Aquinos, and they really do not know what a
Marcos presidency will mean for their businesses. There are those who are
running the show now who were once Marcos cronies who stabbed them in the back
and now won't know what to do when the Marcoses return to the Palace. Also:
Imelda Marcos back in Malacañang is a nightmare for many.
History
4. Victors always get to write history. Watch as
history gets rewritten with a Marcos in power. There will be small pockets of
resistance but the Marcos name will be sanitized, to be replaced by the Aquino
name which will now be villainized. Imagine 30 years of hard work to enshrine
the Aquino name just for it to be completely reversed.
5. A BBM win will give the Marcoses a chance to do
what Yellows hoped they would never, ever get the chance to do — write their
redemption story. If he does good, the Marcoses will be redeemed. It's a chance
no Yellow wants to give them. A redemption arc is always the most dramatic part
of any story because it makes the hero out of the villain.
6. A Marcos-Duterte win — a resounding Marcos-Duterte win — will
make liars out of Maria Ressa and other "voices" of opposition on the
world stage. Imagine a landslide vote. Any self-respecting journalist should
wonder why, despite the negative publicity and news and the theatrics of Maria
Ressa—the PH voted for the children of the two most vilified leaders. It
invites a deeper look and scrutiny, and maybe it will finally reveal the truth
to the world. Maria Ressa and other voices of dissent will fight, but with such
overpowering support, will shrink into irrelevance. They will love the drama of
being the "voice of opposition" but they won't be able to keep it up.
7. When Leni and her Senate slate loses this 2022,
there will be no strong opposition. A BBM presidency, a Duterte vice
presidency, a pro-admin Senate... when you have all branches of government
working together, progress would be easier to achieve. Progress = redemption.
Yes, Leni's supporters will say this is about
values and morality — it's not. She is surrounded, supported and controlled by
the same people who brought us the Aquino admin, and her Senate slate is
composed of an alleged drug lord queen and a former vice president whose family
has been charged with graft and corruption; whose son cannot run for office
again because of corruption issues; a mutineer/soldier who has never seen
active duty in his life...
What values are they talking about?
The fight isn't really about values or morality
because this is politics, hello.
[The elections of] 2022 is important to all sides because of the
usual reasons, but also because both are intensely fighting to become the one
who claims and occupies the right side of history.
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Report from Manila Times
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