Not true PH has flattened COVID-19 curve - Ateneo Prof

Not so fast! There is no place for complacency.

Days after a news came out that the country is already flattening the curve as against the novel coronavirus 2019 disease or COVID-19 an alarm was made public that to make that the general rule is very dangerous.

Ateneo De Manila University (ADMU) mathematics professor cautioned the public and the government against believing that the country has already succeeded in “flattening the curve,” or slowing down the spread of COVID-19.

(photo credit to owner)

The Department of Health (DOH a few days ago said the country has started flattening the curve based on the data of new COVID-19 cases in the country.

Dr. Felix Muga II said that, based on DOH data, the number of active cases is still increasing.

“Nagkakaroon pa rin ng increase pero mabagal ang pag-increase. ’Yung flat dapat parang table na,” Muga said during a virtual forum organized by Citizens’ Urgent Response to End COVID-19 (CURE COVID) on Friday afternoon.

(There is still an increase although the increase is slow. If it’s flat, it should look like a table top.)

Muga showed graphs that he made using the same data from DOH. A linear graph that plots the 5-day moving average of COVID-19 cases shows a slight upward trend in the past couple of weeks.

He pointed out that, even with the logarithmic version of the graph, which is often used to visualize if a country is flattening its epidemic curve, the upward trend is still visible.

“Kung talagang nagfa-flatten, ’yung pinakadulo talagang flat,” he said.

(If it really flattened, the end should really be flat.)

ABS-CBN Data Analytics Head Edson Guido’s version of the logarithmic scale shows South Korea and Taiwan having flat lines, as opposed to countries such as the Philippines.
(photo credit to ABS-CBN)

He said a good example would be the graph of South Korea.

Dr. Muga points out that he expects cases to increase once the DOH catches up with its backlogs.

Flattening the curve under the current pandemic conditions brought about by COVID-19 refers to efforts, such as community isolation, to slow down an outbreak and make it more manageable. It also refers to how a line graph looks when the number of new cases daily is no longer increasing or has stayed low.

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Report from ABS-CBN News

  

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