Not so fast! There is no place for complacency.
Days after a news came out that the country is
already flattening the curve as against the novel coronavirus 2019 disease or
COVID-19 an alarm was made public that to make that the general rule is very
dangerous.
Ateneo De Manila University (ADMU) mathematics
professor cautioned the public and the government
against believing that the country has already succeeded in “flattening the
curve,” or slowing down the spread of COVID-19.
(photo credit to owner) |
The Department of Health (DOH a few days ago
said the country has started flattening the curve based on the data of new COVID-19
cases in the country.
Dr. Felix Muga II said that, based on DOH
data, the number of active cases is still increasing.
“Nagkakaroon pa rin ng increase pero mabagal
ang pag-increase. ’Yung flat dapat parang table na,” Muga said during a virtual
forum organized by Citizens’ Urgent Response to End COVID-19 (CURE COVID) on
Friday afternoon.
(There is still an increase although the
increase is slow. If it’s flat, it should look like a table top.)
Muga showed graphs that he made using the same
data from DOH. A linear graph that plots the 5-day moving average of COVID-19
cases shows a slight upward trend in the past couple of weeks.
He pointed out that, even with the logarithmic
version of the graph, which is often used to visualize if a country is
flattening its epidemic curve, the upward trend is still visible.
“Kung talagang nagfa-flatten, ’yung pinakadulo
talagang flat,” he said.
(If it really flattened, the end should really
be flat.)
ABS-CBN Data Analytics Head Edson Guido’s version of the logarithmic scale shows South Korea and Taiwan having flat lines, as opposed to countries such as the Philippines. (photo credit to ABS-CBN) |
He said a good example would be the graph of
South Korea.
Dr. Muga points out that he expects cases to
increase once the DOH catches up with its backlogs.
Flattening the curve under the current
pandemic conditions brought about by COVID-19 refers to efforts, such as
community isolation, to slow down an outbreak and make it more manageable. It
also refers to how a line graph looks when the number of new cases daily is no
longer increasing or has stayed low.
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Report from ABS-CBN News
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